What It Means for the Industry and Environmental Commitments


Canada is on the cusp of a remarkable leap in oil production, with expectations of a 10% increase in output over the next year. As the industry gears up for this significant upswing, we explore the implications for Canada’s oil and gas sector, environmental commitments, and the broader global energy landscape.

The Surging Production

Canada currently produces around 4.8 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil. Recent insights suggest that this figure could rise by approximately 500,000 bpd, culminating in a remarkable 5.3 million bpd by the end of 2024. This impending boost is attributed to multiple factors, and Alberta’s oilsands is expected to play a pivotal role in driving this growth.

The Analyst’s Perspective

Kevin Birn, S&P’s chief analyst for Canadian oil markets, emphasizes the magnitude of this surge, stating that half a million bpd is more than some entire countries produce. He attributes this dramatic uptick in oil production to various contributing factors.

The Role of Oilsands

The Alberta oilsands are expected to be the primary driver of this production growth. However, this surge isn’t limited to Alberta alone, as increases are foreseen across Western Canada and even at offshore facilities near Newfoundland and Labrador. As these developments unfold, it’s important to acknowledge the transformative potential of the oilsands sector in shaping Canada’s energy future.

The Trans Mountain Expansion

Simultaneously, the expanded Trans Mountain pipeline is approaching its operational phase, which will facilitate the transportation of more oil from Alberta to the West Coast. This expansion, in its final stages of construction, will significantly enhance the pipeline’s capacity, underscoring the importance of infrastructure upgrades in supporting the oil and gas industry.

Efficiency Over Expansion

One noteworthy aspect is that major oilsands companies are not aggressively increasing their capital expenditure to extract more oil; instead, they’re focusing on enhancing the efficiency of their existing facilities to operate at maximum capacity. This approach reflects a pragmatic response to evolving market dynamics.

Impending Plateau

While the immediate future appears promising for Canadian oil production, industry analysts sound a note of caution. This surge may represent the “last hurrah” before a potential plateau in supply growth beyond 2024. The precise timeline for this plateauing effect is projected around 2025-2026, signaling a shift in the sector’s trajectory.

Environmental Considerations

The increase in oil production isn’t without its environmental considerations. Canada has been committed to addressing emissions from oil and gas production. The federal government plans to introduce draft regulations to cap emissions from the sector and drive them down over time. With the oilsands contributing about 11% of Canada’s greenhouse gas emissions, this regulatory development underscores the industry’s commitment to sustainability.


The upcoming surge in Canada’s oil production is a transformative event in the nation’s energy landscape. It underscores the industry’s adaptability and resilience in a dynamic global market. However, it also raises environmental considerations, given the commitment to reducing emissions. This development serves as a reminder that the oil and gas industry is continually evolving, both in terms of production dynamics and environmental stewardship.

As we watch Canada’s oil production rise to unprecedented levels, we must also be mindful of the industry’s responsibility to address environmental concerns and contribute to a sustainable energy future.